Exploring the spiral of silence in the virtual world: lndividuals' willingness to express personal opinions in online versus offline settings

Journal of Media and Communication Studies Vol. 3(2), pp. 45-57, February 2011
Available online http://www.academicjournals.org/jmcs
ISSN 2141-2545 ©2011 Academic Journals
Full Length Research Paper
Exploring the spiral of silence in the virtual world:
lndividuals' willingness to express personal opinions in
online versus offline settings
Xudong Liu
1
 and Shahira Fahmy
2
*
1
School of Journalism, College of Mass Communication and Media Arts, Southern Illinois University, Carbondale, IL,
62901, United States.
2
School of Journalism, Department of Near Eastern Studies, College of Social and Behavioral Sciences, the University
of Arizona, 845 N. Park Avenue, Marshall Building 325, P.O. Box 210158B, Tucson, AZ 85721-0158, United States.
Accepted 30 December, 2010
This study extends the understanding of the spiral of silence theory by taking into account the impact of
new media on virtual behavior motivation. It explores individuals' willingness to express opinions online
and offline and tests how the constructs proposed by the spiral of silence theory work in each setting.
Results of a survey (N=503) suggests that when the  likelihood of speaking out online increases, the
likelihood of speaking out in a real setting also increases, and vice versa. Findings further suggest that the
congruency of current opinions with one's own opinions predicts the willingness to speak out offline.
Congruency of future opinions, however, failed to predict the likelihood of speaking out offline. Findings
also indicated that congruency of future and current opinions did not predict the willingness to speak out in
the online setting. Furthermore, while experiencing fear of isolation predicted by the willingness to speak
out online, it did not affect offline outspokenness.
Key words: Spiral of silence, opinion-climate online, online environment.


INTRODUCTION
The spiral of silence theory, which proposes that people will choose to remain silent if they evaluate that their
views fall in the minority, matured in a traditional media context (Noelle-Neumann, 1973, 1984). Because the
internet has now passed its incubation stage into a part of the mainstream media (Best and Kureger, 2005), the virtual environment offers new communication possibilities and uniqueness (McDevitt et al., 2003;
Witschge, 2007) that legitimize the retesting and rechecking of established traditional spiral of silence
theory in the virtual setting versus the traditional setting. The literature indicates that experiencing fear of isolation and perceptions of the opinion climate are two key constructs related to this theory, nevertheless, they were not specifically tested in the online discussion context, despite the fact that Internet is used as a public sphere to encourage political issue discussion increasing sharply in recent years (Shah et al., 2008; Tian, 2006); moreover research shows online political discussion has been growing and having a greater influence on public opinion (Price et al., 2006).  As expressing online opinions is perceived to be
another dimension of speaking out, and as accessibility of online opinions becomes far more extensive and
immediate than opinions and information presented by traditional media, this study is one of the first studies to
compare and explore expressions of personal opinions in an online environment versus a traditional nvironment. Indeed questions of whether the spiral of silence theory operates differently in the offline and online world remains in question. For example, to what degree can the theory be applied to the online setting? How can online expression affect an individual’s offline outspokenness?
While previous studies found that computer-mediated communication provides an alternative way for
interpersonal communication on politics (Hardy and Scheufele, 2005), and facilitates public discussion of
political issues (Ho and McLeod,  2008;  Li,  2007),  these studies failed to elaborate on how mediation affects the variables addressed by the spiral of silence model work in the online setting.  This study, therefore, seeks to expand our understanding of the spiral of silence theory in three ways: First, this is one of the first studies that attempts to explore how key variables regarding the spiral of silence theory applies to an online context and selective exposure. It tests the different modes of speaking-out regarding a controversial issue — the legalization of same-sex marriage in offline and online settings. Although limited literature examined whether respondents would be willing to speak out if they were placed in  a face-to-face discussion group in one condition and in anonline chat room discussion group in the other condition (Ho and McLeod, 2008), results suggested the spiral of silence theory might have different impact on the online world than in the real world. Additional research isneeded, however, to better understand how online discussion and Internet chat rooms could create a platform that would or could generate free exchange of opinions and/or new ideas that might eventually lead to problem-solving (Kalyanaraman and Sundar, 2008; Kim,2006; Bekkers, 2004). Thus the question of whether the spiral of silence works in the same way in offline and online communities merits more attention. Second, to contribute to research validity, this studyexplores the correlation between speaking-out in online and offline settings. While previous studies have viewed traditional media as a tool for social control in manipulating the formation of public opinion (Lasorsa, 1991; Price et al., 2005; Salwen and Lin, 1994), they did not take into account that the Internet itself is a marketplace of diverse opinions. Results of this study, therefore, seeks to expand our comprehension and application of the theory by addressing whether the Internet can help individuals counteract the spiral ofsilence effect and express personal opinions